Former President Donald Trump has retained a massive lead in election guru Nate Silver’s first 2024 election forecast released after the ABC News presidential debate, which could very well be the only debate between Trump and Harris before November.
After Harris gained a slight lead on the heels of a massive enthusiasm boost among Democrats following President Biden’s decision to suspend his re-election campaign, Trump was able to regain and expand his lead in Silver’s forecast in August.
As of September 6, Silver was giving Trump a 60.1% chance of winning the Electoral College, a dramatic increase from just a few weeks prior. Silver, who evaluates variables such as response bias when fitting recent polls into his model, had Trump up in a number of key swing states as well, especially Pennsylvania.
On Wednesday, Silver released his first post-debate forecast. While post-debate polls have yet to come in, viewers and undecided voters appear to be split on picking a winner, with many post-debate polls naming Trump as a clear winner.
In Wednesday’s update to the model, Silver is giving Trump a 61.6 percent chance of winning the electoral college. Trump is also inching closer to a potential popular vote victory, as the model is currently giving Harris a 49.9 percent chance of winning the popular vote while Trump trails closely behind at 49 percent.
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