Former President Donald Trump’s supporters plan to back him even if he’s convicted of a felony before the November election.
The Center Square Voters’ Voice Poll, conducted in conjunction with Noble Predictive Insights, found that 84 percent of Trump voters would vote for him in November even if he was convicted of a felony before the election.
David Byler of Noble Predictive Insights told The Center Square that might be an undercount.
“This number might seem shockingly high – eight in ten Trump voters are sure they’d support him, even if he’s convicted of a felony,” Byler said. “But I’d argue that this is an underestimate of how loyal Trump voters are. Over and over again, we’ve seen Trump temporarily lose voters during a scandal. But when Trump and his allies start pushing their own messaging and voters consider the alternative, his wayward supporters tend to come back.”
Trump is the first former president to be indicted. As he prepares to campaign against President Joe Biden, Trump faces 88 felony charges spread across four cases in Florida, Georgia, New York and Washington. Federal prosecutors brought two of those cases. Trump faces state charges in New York and Georgia.
“The big concern for Trump isn’t the verdict itself. The issue is his character,” Byler told The Center Square. “Biden tends to beat Trump on questions of character – around honesty, trustworthy and other personal virtues.”
Most early general election polling has shown Trump with a slight edge over Biden. The Center Square’s Voters’ Voice Poll shows Trump beating Biden 46-45 percent with likely voters, within the poll’s +-2% margin of error. The rest are unsure. Trump’s margin improves when considering third-party candidates who could siphon more votes from Biden.
“Trump is ahead in this election in part because it’s being fought on issues where he beats Biden – like the border,” Byler said. “But if voters are hearing about a felony conviction every day and start thinking about Trump’s personal character, key swing voters could move towards Biden.”
A court case won’t win the election for either side, Byler said.
“Many Americans can’t stop rooting for their own side – even when they’re thinking about the judiciary,” he said. “If a verdict comes down against Trump, Republicans will line up behind him. The same is true of Biden – if he were to face serious legal trouble, his core voters would back him up. That’s why it’s so hard for courts to move public opinion – in political cases, many people trust their political leaders more than judges and juries.”
The first of Trump’s criminal trials is set to start with jury selection on April 15. In that hush money case, Trump pleaded not guilty in April 2023 to 34 felony counts related to charges he paid off Stormy Daniels through a lawyer before the 2016 presidential election and covered it up as a legal expense.
