Former President Donald Trump has recorded his biggest lead yet over Vice President Kamala Harris in a key election metric.
One week after the former president gained a fresh lead over Harris, new bets are propelling him to new heights among those forecasting victories in several critical swing states on November 5th.
Notably, in Arizona, analysts predict a Trump win by a substantial 68-32% margin; in Georgia, he holds a similar 64-36% lead; and in North Carolina—a state embroiled in a growing FEMA disaster relief controversy—Trump currently leads Harris 63-37%.
Compounding the challenges for Harris is the belief among bettors that the “blue wall” will not hold in Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump is projected to win in those states by narrower margins of 54-46% and 52-48%, respectively.
However, in the must-win state of Pennsylvania, Trump holds a 10-point lead over Harris, with a forecast of 55-45% among those placing bets. The only state still leaning in favor of Harris is Nevada, albeit narrowly, as she holds a 51-49% lead among bettors. Yet even there, recent polling indicates that Trump is ahead by as much as 5%.
Overall, 57% of bettors are now forecasting a Trump victory in November, marking the largest lead he has maintained since Harris launched her campaign in August. At the peak of his lead over President Joe Biden, nearly three in four bettors believed his victory was inevitable.
.@Polymarket - Presidential Election Winner
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 14, 2024
🟥 Donald Trump: 55%
🟦 Kamala Harris: 45%
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Swing States (chance of winning)
Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump 55-45%
Arizona - 🔴 Trump 67-33%
Georgia - 🔴 Trump 64-36%
North Carolina - 🔴 Trump 63-37%
Michigan - 🔴 Trump 52-48%
Wisconsin… pic.twitter.com/ZRhhYHUo2s
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