Dr. Ward now leads incumbent Senator Jeff Flake by a 48-31 margin among likely GOP primary voters. 21 percent of voters were undecided.
The automated survey interviewed 635 Republicans who had voted in both the March and August 2016 primaries and who said they expected to vote in the August 2018 primary as well. The theoretical margin of error is +- 3.8 percent in 95 percent of cases. Calls were completed on July 17th and 18th.
“This survey shows that our investment in campaign infrastructure is paying off,” said Ward’s campaign Strategist Dustin Stockton. “We’ve assembled a world-class campaign and these numbers show that Arizona Republicans are rallying behind Dr. Kelli. Our campaign will continue to run like we’re five points down but these results reflect the momentum and enthusiasm we’re seeing on the ground.”
“The other big thing we got from this survey is that, despite media rumors, Jeff DeWit and Robert Graham are basically unknown with Republican Primary voters,” Stockton continued. “These numbers make it clear that we’re the only campaign with a credible path for Republicans to hold Flake’s seat.”
In the four-way race, Ward led with 30 percent to 19 percent for Flake, 5 percent for State Treasurer Jeff DeWit and 2 percent for former state party chair Robert Graham. 44 percent of respondents were undecided in that matchup.
The poll also tested favorable and unfavorable ratings for the candidates and those mentioned as possibly entering the primary race. Consistent with other polling (Morning Consult) Flake’s favorables were upside down (22% - 41%). Dr. Ward was seen more favorable than unfavorable (37% - 13%) and both Graham and Dewit received more than 80% “no opinion”.
“Flake’s opposition to the Republican President and the long list of his broken campaign promises make it unlikely he can turn these numbers around,” Stockton continued. “Arizona Republicans want a Senator who will support the President’s agenda. Flake is proven that he doesn’t support President Trump with the clearest evidence being his vote for Evan McMullin for President. ”
“Jeff Flake thinks that we are stupid,” Dr. Ward said. “These numbers make it clear that Republicans are ready to drain the swamp by retiring Flake and the rest of the NeverTrump establishment.”
Ballot Test #1
Ballot Test #2