Polling released on Wednesday by a polling firm heavily associated with the Democratic Party showed Kari Lake beating Representative Ruben Gallego (D-AZ-03) and Senator Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ).
The Public Policy Polling survey released Wednesday showed Lake has the support of 36 percent of Arizona voters, edging out Gallego, who has the support of 35 percent. Sinema was 18 points behind Gallego and 19 points behind Sinema, receiving just 17 percent of support, according to the pollsters.
When respondents were only given Lake and Gallego as possible candidates, the pollsters reported that Lake’s margin of victory remained constant, with the former gubernatorial candidate receiving 46 percent of support compared to Gallego’s 45 percent.
The pollsters surveyed 590 Arizona voters on January 5 and January 6 and reported a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Though the pollsters did not ask about the presidential race, the survey may have offered positive news for former President Donald Trump as he looks toward a rematch against President Joe Biden in November.
According to the survey, more Arizonans have a positive view of Trump than approve of Biden’s job performance in the White House. Pollsters found that 41 percent of Arizonans hold a positive view of Trump, while 52 percent have an unfavorable view, and 7 percent are not sure. Biden had a 40 percent approval of his job performance, contrasted with a 55 percent disapproval, while just 5 percent told pollsters they were unsure.
Lake entered the Senate race in October with a slight lead over Gallego and Sinema, when pollsters found 37 percent of Arizonans would back Lake, while Gallego lagged at 33 percent. Sinema received 19 percent of support in that poll.
Sinema still has not declared whether she will seek reelection. However, a campaign strategy document obtained by the media last year suggested she intended to enter the race and would court disaffected Republican and independent voters to build a winning coalition.
Multiple polls have shown Sinema’s best polling is among independent and Republican voters; however, every poll of the Senate race has shown Sinema losing to Lake or Gallego.
Sinema’s goal of courting independent and Republican voters may also be jeopardized by her record. In November 2023, the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) resurfaced audio of a 2006 radio interview with Sinema. In the audio, Sinema called herself Arizona’s “most liberal legislator” in a bid to introduce herself to the state’s Democrats.
