The Cook Political Report has shifted five significant swing states and Nebraska’s swing district in favor of former President Donald Trump in its most recent prediction for the 2024 presidential election.
Amy Walter, the editor-in-chief of the non-partisan election forecaster, explained the changes to their electoral map, noting that “As of July 9, the Democratic Party is living in a state of suspended animation. Despite growing calls from many in his party to leave the contest, President Joe Biden has made clear he has no intention of dropping out.”
Walter continued her article by acknowledging that although many of the insiders she has spoken to are still optimistic that Biden will notice his abysmal polling numbers and decide to withdraw, the likelihood now seems “remote.”
According to its most recent Electoral Map prediction, Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada have all moved from being classified as “toss-up” to “lean Republican,” giving Trump 268 electoral votes in his column.
Additionally, Cook Political changed the status of Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Nebraska’s 2nd District from “likely Democrat” to “lean Democrat,” suggesting that Trump may now be able to win these blue states.
Only 226 of the 270 electoral votes that are required are in Biden’s column; the other 44 are must-win contests for Biden, including Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Cook Senior Editor Dave Wasserman commented on the shift, stating, “The notion that the presidential is a Toss Up was a stretch even before the debate. Today, Trump has a clear advantage over Biden and a much more plausible path to 270 Electoral votes.” In the Cook forecast, Trump only needs to win of the three toss-up states to win the election.
Today, we're making six changes to our Electoral College Ratings.
— Cook Political Report (@CookPolitical) July 9, 2024
AZ: Toss Up to Lean R
GA: Toss Up to Lean R
MN: Likely D to Lean D#NE02: Likely D to Lean D
NH: Likely D to Lean D
NV: Toss Up to Lean R@amyewalter on the state of the race post-debate: https://t.co/AAoW23wKWC
