Convictions fail to sink Trump’s campaign

A New York jury convicted former President Donald Trump on 34 felony counts last week, but so far it seems to have done little to dampen Trump's electoral hopes.

The conviction naturally raised the question of whether they would topple Trump’s 2024 White House bid.

For now, the answer appears to be no.


A New York Times/Siena poll surveyed 1,897 registered voters before and after Trump’s conviction. The results found that before the conviction, Trump led President Joe Biden by three points. After the conviction, Trump led by one point.

Real Clear Politics tracks betting markets on presidential candidates. After the May 30 convictions, Trump’s odds went down for a few days, but they have already nearly returned to pre-conviction levels.

In fact, Trump’s odds are currently better than almost any time this year.

Notably, Trump saw a spike in polling after the FBI raid on his Mar-a-Lago estate in August 2022 that helped propel him to win the Republican nomination.

A Fox News conducted from June 1 to June 4, after Trump's guilty verdict, has Trump up by 5 points in the swing states of Arizona and Nevada.

The same poll has Trump up by 4 points in Florida and tied in Virginia.

Another post-coviction poll in North Carolinahad Trump leading Biden by 5 points.

An Emerson College national survey conducted June 4-5, also after Trump’s conviction, showed Trump has a one point lead over Biden, within the margin of error.

Trump Speech by DoD photo by U.S. Marine Corps Lance Cpl. Cristian L. Ricardo is licensed under Flickr Public Domain
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