Republicans appear to be in a strong position to take back control of the Senate in 2024, where they only need to flip two seats, with numerous vulnerable Democrats set to appear on the ballot amid a contentious presidential election.
West Virginia provides Senate Republicans with their best chance, as Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin decided not to seek reelection in the state that went for former President Donald Trump by nearly 40 points in 2020. Other pick-up opportunities are in red states like Montana and Ohio, as well as presidential battlegrounds like Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada.
“First, I do think we shouldn’t underestimate the power of incumbency. Senate incumbents are doing quite well these days and the best targets, even in red states, won’t be pushovers. They will have unlimited money,” Scott Jennings, a GOP strategist and veteran of numerous campaigns, told the Daily Caller News Foundation. “That having been said, I think [West Virginia] is obviously gone for the Democrats, meaning at worst the Senate is 50-50. That puts pressure on Dems to hold all of these: Ohio, Montana, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Nevada. Plus the Vice Presidency.”
“That’s a great opening hand for the GOP in this cycle,” Jennings added.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), the Senate GOP’s campaign arm, has been largely focused on the races in West Virginia, Montana and Ohio, all of which Trump won in 2020. Additionally, the group is targeting five swing states that President Joe Biden won by 3 points or less — Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada.
Trump is currently leading in the RealClearPolitics average for a hypothetical rematch against Biden in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania, while the two are tied in Wisconsin.
After a failed red wave in 2022, the NRSC decided to get involved in the primary process and focus on recruiting candidates this cycle.
Jon McHenry, a GOP polling analyst and vice president at North Star Opinion Research, warned that while Republicans “have a very favorable map,” their “candidates matter.”
“Republicans threw away winnable races in the last few years with candidates who were less appealing in the general election than they were with a populist base,” McHenry told the DCNF.
The NRSC has recruited Republicans in Montana, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada and West Virginia, and is currently encouraging one to run in Wisconsin.
“Senate Republicans have a great map, but we can’t fall in love with the map. Incumbent Senators are extremely difficult to defeat, so we prioritized recruiting America First candidates who can appeal to our pro-Trump base and independent voters,” NRSC Chairman Steve Daines told the DCNF. “We are working closely with President Trump to elect a Republican majority who will confirm his appointments and back his America First agenda. It is critical that when President Trump picks up the phone to confirm a Supreme Court Justice that it isn’t Chuck Schumer on the other end of the line.”
Arizona
Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who left the Democratic Party in 2022, has yet to decide whether she’s running for a second term.
Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego has already launched a bid for the seat, while several Republicans are vying for the nomination, including Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb and former GOP gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake.
The NRSC hasn’t endorsed in the Arizona race, but the chairman has commended Lake for being “one of the most talented politicians we have running in the 2024 cycle.”
If Sinema runs, and Gallego and Lake are their respective party nominees, a contentious three-way race would ensue. Some polling has shown Gallego winning in such a scenario, while other surveys show Lake ahead.
Regardless, the polling largely finds Sinema coming in third, according to FiveThirtyEight’s survey compilation.
McHenry believes this is another strong pickup opportunity for the Republicans, as Sinema could split the Democratic vote, he told the DCNF.
