More Republicans than Democrats participated in primary elections for the 2022 midterms, suggesting an enthusiasm gap that will favor the GOP in November.
Fifty-two percent of votes cast in primaries were in Republican races compared to 48% in Democratic races, pollster John Couvillon found according to a Washington Post analysis. In every midterm election since 2006, the party that received more primary participation gained seats. Republicans are expected to take back the House of Representatives in November, although Democrats have the inside edge on the upper chamber.
The analysis found that Republicans continued to turn out at higher rates even after the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision, which many analysts have credited with super-charging Democrat enthusiasm. Democrats have won three out of four House special elections held since the Court overturned Roe v. Wade.
